Why Putin is Threatening Ukraine
Scholars, foreign policy professionals, politicians, and now even regular people are all talking about whether the Russian military will invade Ukraine. The consensus is split: Some experts think Russian President Vladimir Putin is a power-hungry sociopath who is intent on rebuilding the Soviet Union. Others think he is a cunning statesman using Khrushchev-like brinksmanship to force concessions by the West.
Either way, there are a few important reasons why Putin is even moving his forces to the Ukrainian border (and now into Belarus) in the first place.
First of all, having troops threatening the border of Ukraine and therefore the rest of Europe changes the negotiation dynamic for future concessions from the West and gives Putin a powerful negotiating chip. He hopes that the first objective of any future negotiations with Russia will be the removal of troops from the Ukrainian border.
In this, Putin has historical precedence. By shipping missiles to an ally, creating a crisis for the Americans, and changing the geopolitical dynamic of the Cold War, Nikita Khrushchev gained an important concession from the Kennedy administration in 1962: the removal of American Jupiter missiles from Turkey. While the removal of the Jupiters wasn't the intended outcome at the beginning of what became known as the Cuban Missile Crisis, Khrushchev changed the geopolitical dynamic of the Cold War and benefitted. Putin is attempting to do the same thing. He wants to force the West to make concessions in an attempt to remove the troops from Ukraine's border.
Similarly, Putin also is using this manufactured crisis to test the West. When speaking about this crisis, the dynamic tends to be Putin vs. the West. But how united is the West? The United States, the UK, and Eastern European nations, such as the Baltics and Poland, are all supportive of Ukrainian sovereignty, however, Germany is dragging its feet.
German leadership is dependent on Nord Stream 2, the Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) pipeline that flows directly to Germany. Germans are worried that if the West stands up to Putin, he will cease the critical gas flowing to Germany. Western organizations like the EU and NATO equire unity to be effective and if one of the most powerful members breaks from the party line, Putin gains the advantage in Europe he wants. Should this play out in a showdown between Putin and the West, he is counting on German reluctance to work in his favor.
Putin also is using this manufactured crisis as an attempt to project the false idea that Russia is a great power at the level of the United States and China. Keeping Russia in the news allows for the rest of the world to see Russia as a great power flexing its muscles.
In truth, Russia's economy is not nearly as strong as either the United States or China and Russia is still in the midst of societal and economic instability. However powerful he is, Putin sees Russia as the natural third superpower in the trio of superpowers that are emerging during the changing post-US hegemonic world order.
Putin also has historic reasons for wanting Ukraine back in the Russian sphere of influence. Russia has continually seen Ukraine as Russia's little brother, one needing support and defense. As Anna Reid puts it in her book Borderlands: A Journey through the History of Ukraine, “Ukraine became to Russians what Ireland and Scotland were to the English — not an imperial possession, like Canada or India, but part of the irreducible centre”. Therefore, Ukraine becoming a pro-Western liberal democracy is the last thing Putin wants, since not only is it the opposite of Russia's style of government, it by definition opposes it.
It’s worth recalling that Putin was a KGB officer in the Cold War era Soviet Union, and believes that Russia is the defender of Slavs everywhere, from the Crimean annexation in 2014 to the active measures used against the Baltics in the late 2000s. While Putin is not intent on actually rebuilding the Soviet Union, he is intent on regaining the public perception of power the Soviets once enjoyed.
Frankly, the main reason Putin is threatening the security of Europe in the most dangerous way since World War II is because Putin feels he has the advantage. He knows that Ukraine cannot defend itself without Western support. He thinks that should he attack, the West will not be united in their response and should he decide to negotiate they would come to the negotiating table from a weakened position.
Whether he decides to attack or not, Putin has manufactured a crisis which gives him a stronger position in a changing world order.